2013年3月11日星期一

Fell into a trough under the photovoltaic external and internal problems


Fell into a trough under the photovoltaic external and internal problems, experienced industry-wide losses. Dual anti-sanctions the face of Europe and the United States, both government officials and the photovoltaic industry business leaders, experts and scholars as well as the economic sector, everyone happens to coincide to a problem to reach a consensus: Now start the domestic PV market.

In recent years, China's PV 
solar panel industry rapid rise through the scale, technology and industry chain development, contribute greatly lower the cost of photovoltaic energy.The sad thing is that the the domestic user does not enjoy the benefits of growth in the photovoltaic industry, 80% of PV products are exported to overseas. 2011 new photovoltaic installed capacity of 28GW, global components production capacity of 63GW. China's assembly capacity of 40GW, the production of 23GW, the domestic installed only 2.5GW. 

Chinese control 65% of the world PV production capacity, accounting for a market share of approximately 60%, but the amount of PV 
solar cell installed capacity was added in 2011 accounted for only 2.5% of the world. Obviously, the Chinese PV domestic market is far behind in the development of the industry in which the leadership of the world photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and we do not match. 

We assume, to open the domestic market, the export ratio of PV products in China as 80% down to 50%, exports: the domestic = 1:1 (healthy industry ratio), when exports to overseas markets will decline about 5.5GW, about 11GW. Chinese PV products in Europe and the United States (2011 installed capacity of 22GW) local market share fell to 50% from the current 75%. Local manufacturers in Europe and the United States also Chinese manufacturers such boycott it? Europe and the United States government photovoltaic products in China will start a double reverse it?

Domestic enterprises due to the limited local market, had flocked to the overseas market to expand market share, reduce costs, expand production capacity barbaric overdraft capacity intertwined global financial crisis led to the slump in overseas markets, prices plummeted lead to double reverse. Limited overseas markets, had to settle for the plot to the domestic market, and some vomiting blood price of scrimmage, to share the cost can only continue to expand production. China PV industry into a vicious cycle of non-continuation.

Is China there is no market demand for it? Wrong, the Chinese PV market has great potential. I will give you a set of data: 1.1GW PV 
solar charge controller power plant is about 20 square kilometers, 1000GW take about 20,000 square kilometers, just 1/10 of the Qaidam Basin area. China's current component capacity 40GW, which requires the production of 25 years. Currently China has 48 billion square meters of building roof area, construction of PV systems, in which 10% of the roof will form 500GW solar battery market. 

Faced with such a large market potential, why the Chinese domestic market delays release manufacturers insisted detour? In 2011, the photovoltaic cell module prices fell by about 50%, the rapid decline in the cost of photovoltaic products. Distributed rooftop PV system efficiency and price of photovoltaic cells in the grid and to meet annual generation of 1,200 hours premise, ROI, IRR of 9.3%, the recoverable costs about 8 years. The time is ripe to open the domestic photovoltaic market.

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