The future development of China's solar PV market （3）

The seminar also exists another point of view. WU Fu Bao, deputy director of the China Electric Power Research Institute, Energy Research Institute, the impact of the distribution network planning and design, operation control and relay protection for distributed photovoltaic power generation, large-scale development of the appropriate measures and recommendations. However, he also said that the German distribution network load rate of about 60%, the load rate of 80% or higher, was not much room left to the solar photovoltaic power generation, and the roof does not have too much resources, therefore, in eastern China distributed photovoltaic power generation will not have very good prospects.

Ground-based power plants, industry legend "six six small enterprise credit support, and state and local solar panel governments direct emergency relief, Wang Haisheng, said:" This is less likely, it should be just a rumor, because the relief is greater than the industry and disadvantages Lee, more harm than good, and for Europe and the United States to launch a trade war to provide an excuse. "

Analysis of market supply and demand situation, he said, Chinese companies can contact the market (see Figure 4), taking into account the impact of Europe and the United States "double reverse", the market demand capacity in 2013 there is a big uncertainty. The supply side in the first half of 2013 may be the worst period in the industry. 10 to 20% of the GW-class manufacturers, 30% of 100 ~ 500MW-class medium-sized plant, 60 to 80% of the 100MW plant will be forced to withdraw. Expected by the end of 2013, global production capacity of 55 ~ 60GW, Chinese mainland manufacturers of production can be reduced to 30 ~ 40GW, while domestic capacity typically accounts for less than half of the global production capacity, excess capacity will continue.

Figure 4 whether or not "double reverse" components factory in China had no contact with the market growth. (Source: Minsheng Securities)

Invalid expansion turn fixed assets decline, the finished products go to the inventory, a substantial increase in inventories as a result, cash flow continues to worsen, the sales drop in net profit. Therefore, the performance and profitability of the enterprises do not see signs of improvement in the short term.

But Wang Haisheng also pointed out, domestic power station development has been the core conditions, power plants solar cell began to have profitability, investment risk in reducing China Guangdong Nuclear Power in energy-saving, China Merchants New Energy and Shanghai Industrial and other large-scale central enterprises begin to invest photovoltaic power plants, the mechanism for developers out of shape the second half of 2012, part of the power plant developers will be obtained through the sale of power plants fast return on investment.

So difficult when the domestic industry, the manufacturers of any ghost of a chance should not miss and thin then small meat should eat. Golden Sun Demonstration Project, China National Energy Board website for the latest 2012 catalog of the second batch of projects, the author found that the Yingli approved projects of more than 298MW. Wang Sicheng said: "subsidy of 5.5 yuan / watt standard power projects by the user side, Yingli considerable profit. Previously, Yingli has been to follow up on the project, the big vendors such as Suntech, Astor accidentally or intentionally ignored this part ' small 'business. "

However, China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association renewable resources special committee Secretary-General Li Junfeng, the solar planning objectives of the 12th Five-Year period is not meaningful, it's just a bottom line. In China, it is more important is that mechanism.

EU's "double reverse" big stick will fall?

Expand overseas markets, although some Chinese PV manufacturers are also investigated, and assessment of the European market and factory. But they still exist safe to assume that if the EU did not pass the "double reverse" or very low tax rates, overseas acquisitions and practices of the local plant is not necessary.

Within the EU is not a monolith, which makes Chinese PV manufacturers do not feel completely isolated. Holding the attitude of strong opposition from a number of industry associations and members of the anti-dumping. For example, the Federation of German machinery manufacturers, with many members of PV equipment manufacturers that trade protectionism will greatly hurt the local machinery industry will lead to bankruptcy photovoltaic production equipment manufacturers. Many members from photovoltaic equipment, materials, systems integration field should not be this way for the local high-cost manufacturers to provide protection Moreover, by the the protection vendor proportion not large.