The status quo of China's solar PV market （1）

he 2011 the InterSolar China seminar was the industry's mainstream view is 1 year from the PV spring. However, a year later, China's photovoltaic industry is facing polysilicon prices continue to break new low, serious excess capacity solar battery components manufacturers to the brink of the edge of life and death as the tragic.

The Intersolar China 2012 International Symposium, held in Beijing from December 11 to 13, 2009, professionals from the foreign solar photovoltaic industry associations and analysts, the current situation and a way out of the Chinese PV market, published a different view.

How can the industry status quo "sorrow" Zile

China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance Secretary-General Wang Bo analyzes the domestic market conditions, given the following data: the third quarter of 2012, China's polysilicon production of 50,000 tons, the annual output of 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year decline of about 20% is expected. Imported 8.5 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 23%. Industry self-sufficiency rate to 47% or less.

The third quarter of 2012, shipments solar cell of approximately 18GW of solar modules, the year is expected to reach 23GW output up will drop substantially. 2012 new installed capacity is expected to 4 ~ 5GW, a year-on-year growth of more than 66%.

2012 polysilicon prices continue to run low, the latest offer is less than 18 U.S. dollars / kg, the granular silicon price is less than $ 1,418 / kg, significantly lower than the cost of production. Further deterioration of China's polysilicon industry, production of negative growth (see Figure 1), the number of shutdowns nearly 90%, at present, only a few enterprises in Jiangsu Zhongneng, Asia Silicon and the upper reaches of the Yellow River continue to produce, but capacity utilization is only about 50%. Most discontinued in 2013 the polysilicon enterprises will be eliminated, industry rebound until 2014.

In addition, the 2012 solar cell shipments increased slightly by exports fell more than 40%. The third quarter, the top nine battery components manufacturers shipments qoq almost showed a downward trend, the average debt ratio of about 70%. Industry, the majority of PV loss-making enterprises over the four-quarter receivables recovery cycle lengthened funds fracture pressure. More than half of small and medium-sized battery components business has been discontinued, 30% of the production is declining dramatically, 10 to 20% of a small cut or barely able to maintain, and has begun to lay off or to take a pay cut, the top few manufacturers even large-scale layoffs of thousands of people .

Global PV equipment sales revenue in 2011 was $ 12.8 billion, IMS 2012 is expected to decline 57%. Photovoltaic about 70% by Asian companies, mainly in China, but income is only 20%. In 2012, China's PV-specific equipment orders will be reduced by more than 80%.

My analysis, the main reason for Chinese PV solar panel manufacturers face the dilemma is: ① the context of the global economic downturn, Europe and the United States PV market a large number of financial subsidies difficult dimension to continued decline in market demand; ② Europe and the United States on the forthcoming or have been identified by the Chinese manufacturers "double reverse" measures, further aggravated inventory; (3) China's PV market is very small, basically rely on overseas; ④ many local governments do not have the science, industry market mind for achievements, Ukraine the yarn and fiscal revenue, take "racking our brains "approach blindly given land, capital, tax and policy support for the photovoltaic industry, the development of a large number of technical level is not high, small, high energy consumption enterprises, thereby disrupting the market price.