The future development of China's solar PV market （4）

Industry is facing a serious dilemma, two coping styles. Externally, the Ministry of Commerce of China following the solar grade polysilicon "double reverse" survey initiated by the EU on November 1, at the 5th EU PV subsidy discriminatory measures submitted to the WTO. Also, some Chinese manufacturers have begun to consider overseas acquisitions, local factories, and the layout of the emerging PV markets of Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America regions.

Internally, the government "Twelve Five" solar photovoltaic power generation capacity target to 21GW, and began to actively support distributed photovoltaic power generation and grid (6MW and below capacity), 10 million kilowatts of installed 2015 target bit. Some manufacturers have already started to invest in photovoltaic power plants.

Wang Sicheng, researcher at the Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, said that Europe and the solar cell United States, Japan and other countries and regions distributed photovoltaic power generation and grid to take the absolute mainstream, contrary to the situation in China, accounting for the vast majority, centralized.

Both he and the new energy industry Minsheng Securities chief analyst Wang Haisheng, the photovoltaic born applicable to distributed generation. High the western power station transmission costs, distributed more viable. The latest government support of distributed photovoltaic power generation is a positive attitude, and should be affirmed. However, due to the policies and regulations of each provinces reporting cap 500MW, the national total of about 15GW, a kWh subsidy of 0.4 to 0.6 yuan, may actually be 0.4 yuan. Therefore, the short-term the market will not be explosive growth. Although the policy of the government can not immediately solve the dilemma of the domestic manufacturers, "feel the burn", but to some extent can play the role of "faith sustained.

Wang Sicheng that the Chinese PV market since 2012, an average annual growth rate of 20.2% will enter a stable growth period (see Figure 2). Distributed PV generation total PV market share from 30.3% in 2011, and gradually increased to 45.24% in 2015 and 54% in 2020. China and the global photovoltaic market overcapacity situation is only temporary difficulties in the current and future years, five years later, the market demand will be greatly changed.

Figure 2 Chinese PV market forecast

Wang Haisheng analysis of the optimal choice of investors in the implementation of the policy in late 2014-2015 to carry out a large-scale installation. Wang Sicheng and he and several other speeches caught distributed photovoltaic power generation investment rate of return lower than the large ground-based power plant and Golden Sun project and power solar panel station kWh subsidized prices, and the Internet part of the ability to purchase the full amount and subsidies the uncertainty of the duration, so that enterprises can not predict the return on investment is very risky, short-term is difficult to stimulate investment enthusiasm (see Figure 3). Therefore, the establishment of a stable and viable business model is the key to attracting investors.

Figure 3 distributed solar photovoltaic power generation and large ground-based power plant and the Golden Sun project ROI comparison (Source: Minsheng Securities)

Wang Sicheng said National Grid has issued a document to actively solve distributed PV Internet, which will make the photovoltaic industry will benefit, but there will be some loss of national grid, because it had money, and now no money. Wang Haisheng also agree with this point of view, he said: "The important thing is that the provincial and municipal grid branch has not distributed PV generation Internet included in the annual internal performance assessment indicators, so the effect is difficult to predict the actual implementation."

Wang Sicheng also worried, stressed: "To prevent enterprises do things the tendency to avoid excess power plants in the future."