The two the brokerage parse solar investment prospects

Terminal steady demand growth, in 2013 20% of the growth can be expected: expected 2013, strong growth in China, the United States, Japan, India, South Africa, Southeast Asia countries represented emerging market, even to Germany, Italy, represented by The traditional European the main market decline, the global PV installed capacity was added is still expected to achieve a growth of over 20%, reaching more than 36GW.

Supply continued to shrink: taking into account the end of corporate credit contraction and the beginning of next year, the superimposed effect of off-season demand, we expect this wave of production solar panel capacity out will continue until at least early next year, when the various aspects of effective capacity expected to shrink to less than 35GW.

Cost competitiveness behind, consider the technology of the equipment depreciation caused and pressure continued loss of small businesses to bring their balance sheets, most of the current exit capacity of SMEs, the future will not be able to re-enter the competition in the market;? Industry boom of the early stage of recovery, the survival of enterprises will remain unable to capacity expansion, contracted capacity level is expected to remain so for at least one year time, a new round of expansion of the peak is expected to come close to the high point in the industry boom.

The gradual arrival of the era of cheap Internet access is optimistic about the industry's long-term background: component, and BoS product prices declining in the last year and a half, the system installation prices fell by half, the user side parity has been achieved in some areas, according to our calculations reach 8% penetration of photovoltaic power generation by 2020, the future of the average annual newly installed needs a 10-fold growth in space.

Recent proposal to focus on the two major events of the European double reverse "and" domestic policy ".

European dual anti preliminary results scheduled to be released will be held in June next year, we expected ruled a double reverse set up will be a high probability event, but out of consideration of the factors for the development of renewable energy generation power "and" industrial chain also affect , double anti-tax rate in Europe is expected to be lower than in the United States; double reverse for the United States, the domestic component companies generally through the use of solar cell in Taiwan successfully circumvent the tariff, but because of the European anti-double for the whole industry chain, in addition to factories abroad, it is difficult to circumvent, so The finding of significant impact on domestic enterprises and end demand.

Our government to support the development of renewable energy, the attitude to start photovoltaic domestic demand has been very clear, expected next year, there will still be distributed kWh subsidies, grid quota system, industry access system and related policies have been put forward, but support policies may to some extent play "stimulate domestic demand to start and delay production capacity out of" double-edged sword effect.

Investment advice.

We recommend focused their attention on a second-tier companies operating rate as the leading indicators, and gross margin improved for the confirmation, see the text analysis of the specific reasons; Additionally, to be concerned about of European double reverse process and domestic policy, the introduction of investment pace.

The rebound of the industrial chain in order to benefit from downstream to upstream, the level of benefit from upstream to downstream. Recommendations concern: the longest the polysilicon part of the of expansion cycle GCL (3800.hk), earnings elasticity shuffle full of monocrystalline silicon wafers links Lungi the shares (601012.sh) and Comtec (0712. hk), the battery components link in the the Hairun photovoltaic (600401.sh), as well as the most direct benefit the inverter start of the domestic market aspects of the sun power .